What if the most important fact about the latest peace talks is what Russia has not agreed to?
The diplomatic machinery is moving. American officials are carrying proposals between Kyiv and Moscow. European governments are discussing troops, aircraft and air defense. Ukrainian officials are trying to keep the entire conversation attached to the reality of a country whose power stations are still being attacked.
And Moscow, at least so far, appears interested in the appearance of diplomacy without accepting the obligations that would make peace more than a pause.
That distinction matters. A meeting is not a process. A ceasefire is not necessarily security. And a document—however impressive the paper, however solemn the signatures—does not deter anyone unless the other side believes there will be consequences for violating it.
So today we are going to look at the new Oslo channel, the proposed energy ceasefire, and the increasingly awkward question at the center of all of this: who, exactly, would defend the peace after the shooting stops?
In this episode:
• The Oslo Channel Opens Again
• A Guarantee Is Only as Strong as Its Hardware
• The Energy War Is the Negotiating Table
Sources & further reading:
• In Oslo, the President of Ukraine Held Meetings with the Prime Minister of Norway, the President of Finland and the American Side: https://www.president.gov.ua/news/v-oslo-prezident-ukrayini-proviv-zustrichi-z-premyer-ministr-106981
• Relations with Ukraine: https://nato.int/en/what-we-do/partnerships-and-cooperation/relations-with-ukraine
• We Are Working on New Air Defense Packages: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/pracyuyemo-nad-novimi-paketami-ppo-volodimir-zelenskij-za-re-106893
