What does it mean when nearly an entire continent shows up for a summit hosted by a country that cannot compete with China economically, cannot replace the West as a development partner, and is still fighting a major war in Europe?
The easy answer is that Russia is winning Africa. The more interesting answer is that African governments may be winning something from Russia.
Today, Moscow is staging its third Russia–Africa Summit. Forty-eight African countries are expected to participate, with twenty-two sending heads of state. That is an extraordinary photograph. But photographs are not alliances. They are not payment systems, construction contracts, or functioning security partnerships. They are photographs.
So the question for The World Order is simple: is this summit building a Russian sphere of influence, or is Africa turning Moscow’s ambitions into leverage of its own?
And before we get carried away with the map—and I can already feel myself getting carried away with the map—the answer is probably both, but not in equal measure.
In this episode:
• Moscow stages a continental demonstration
• The guests are not joining a Russian bloc
• Russia’s influence is real, but its balance sheet is thin
