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The War Below the Threshold

The World Order
The World Order
The War Below the Threshold
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What if the most important attacks in Europe are the ones that never quite become acts of war? A damaged airport, a cyber intrusion, a suspicious drone, a fabricated news site, a cable that stops working. Each incident can be explained away. Together, they form a strategic problem.

And this is where I should issue the usual warning about elegant theories. I have a red folder in my possession that exists specifically to remind me that a beautifully connected security narrative can still be wrong. So today we are not going to turn every unexplained disruption into proof of a Kremlin master plan. We are going to ask a more useful question: what happens to an alliance when uncertainty is not an accident, but part of the operating environment?

This week, The World Order examines Russia’s expanding campaign below the threshold of open conflict—and the Western response that is beginning to take shape.

In this episode:
• The Leipzig Test
• Article Five in the Gray Zone
• Sanctions Against an Invisible Front
• When the Private Sector Becomes the Front Line