What happens when a government tries to restore national sovereignty with a coalition that does not agree on what the nation should look like afterward?
That is the problem now unfolding in Yemen, where Saudi-backed forces are attacking Houthi positions near Taiz and the Bab el-Mandeb. The military question is whether territory can be recovered. The political question is much harder: who holds it, who governs it, and who gets to decide what comes next?
Then we move to Moscow, where Russia is hosting the Taliban alongside China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Central Asian states. This is not an alliance. It is something more interesting and, frankly, more uncomfortable: a regional management system forming around a government that much of the West still refuses to recognize formally.
And finally, Brazil. Its presidential runoff is being described as a domestic contest over crime, corruption and political identity. It is all of those things. But it is also a vote on how much leverage BrasÃlia wants to retain while Washington, Beijing and competing political movements all ask Brazil to lean their way.
The pattern is not that one bloc has conquered the world. The pattern is that regional powers are increasingly willing to act first and negotiate the settlement later. That is a very different kind of map. And, as usual, the map is not the country.
In this episode:
• Saudi Arabia is betting that force can restore leverage in Yemen
• Afghanistan is becoming a regional management problem
• Brazil’s runoff is a vote on how much leverage BrasÃlia wants to keep
Sources & further reading:
• A Saudi-led coalition says its fighter jets are bombing Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels: https://apnews.com/article/e87beb84a0d146e4f0546b50508f7e32
• Russia hosts a Taliban delegation, others for consultations on Afghanistan: https://apnews.com/article/9e8457e61919802d50a5d2571e8afa76
• Flávio Bolsonaro e Lula vão disputar o 2º turno para a Presidência da República: https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2026/Outubro/flavio-bolsonaro-e-lula-vao-disputar-o-2o-turno-para-a-presidencia-da-republica
